Video: Demonetisation and Black Money The Hindu Centre's Background Note on Demonetisation and Black Money can be accessed here [PDF 5.08 MB] Participants at public discussion say they were surprised at the absence of mass protests C. Rammanohar Reddy, advisor to The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy, said on Thursday that the demonetisation exercise of last year was more a political gamble by Prime Minister Narendra Modi than an economic decision. Mr. Reddy was speaking at a public discussion on ‘Demonetisation and Black Money’ at the Kasturi Srinivasan Hall of The Music Academy. The event was organised by The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy along with the Asian College of Journalism. The panel, moderated by Sashi Kumar, Chairman of the Media Development Foundation, also had economist S. Subramanian and Raghavan Srinivasan, Editor of The Hindu Business Line on board. “Was this a political gamble or an economic policy decision with a political twist? Looking back at how demonetisation was planned etcetera: the economic results are so minimal, I think it was more a political decision than an economic policy decision with a political twist. And that worries me. It worries me that the Prime Minister can take such a decision because he wants to make political capital of it. All politicians do that, but look at the scale of the decision,” said Mr. Reddy, author of the recently-published book, Demonetisation and Black Money . Mr. Reddy, former Editor of the Economic and Political Weekly , conceded that the Prime Minister emerged stronger: “The fact is, you have to agree — Narendra Modi and the NDA government are now in a stronger position than on November 8... The failures of demonetisation have not weakened the government.” He went on to say that he was worried that an emboldened government might take other risks: “You got away with it because of your political mastery and the failure of the Opposition. The issue is that you could think of this and unleash it on a population to make political capital. What worries me is, in fact, what is around the corner. Not whether there will be another round of demonetisation, because having unscathed and even more powerful, What may the government and Mr. Modi may think of in another year or two years.” Mr. Srinivasan said Mr. Modi had successfully convinced the country of his good intentions. “He buys himself street credentials as a fighter of black money and corruption ‘Look I took everybody on....’ Although people know that the outcome was not quite as projected... somehow he has managed to sell that narrative.” Both Mr. Reddy and Mr. Srinivasan admitted they were perplexed by the absence of mass protests against demonetisation. “Perhaps it’s true that we don’t really understand what the priorities of people are and why they are willing to put up with this,” said Mr. Reddy. ‘Incorrect assumptions’ Doubts were raised as to whether economists had misread the fundamentals of the economy. “As this demonetisation exercise shows, I think many of our usual assumptions about how our economy actually works are not correct. Just because we had so much money in circulation ... we assume that cash runs our economy,” Mr. Srinivasan said. Mr. Subramanian, a former National Fellow of the Indian Council of Social Science Research, offered a glowing review of the book. “For me, the strength of Ram’s objectivity is the weakness of the book. This is reflected in his reluctance to engage in prediction of demonetisation 2016’s future impact and speculation as to the real reasons for its introduction and the relatively forgiving reception it has had from those adversely affected by it.” Opening the floor to discussion after the panellists’ presentations, Mr. Kumar questioned whether the government had the infrastructure necessary to fulfil its promises. “What portion of the population is connected? What kind of connectivity do you have to talk about a digital economy. There is a big disconnect between the dreams that demonetisation seems to evoke and the suffering actually felt on the ground,” he said. Source: The Hindu
The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy and the Asian College of Journalism invite you to a Public Discussion on Demonetisation and Black Money Date: April 13, 2017 (Thursday) Time: 6.00 p.m. Venue: Kasturi Srinivasan Hall, The Music Academy, Old no. 306, New no. 168, T.T. Krishnamachari Road, Royapettah, Chennai 600014. Please send your name, email ID and phone number to email: [email protected] or call +914428524445 (10 a.m. to 6 p.m.)
Video: Annual Lecture No.1 Modi government had failed to seize the opportunity to drive economic growth despite favourable conditions when it came to power in 2014, he says. India cannot achieve economic growth in the long term if it excludes the minorities and marginalised sections of society from the political process, veteran Congress leader and former Union Minister P. Chidambaram has cautioned. He was delivering the first annual lecture of The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy on “Will India Script an Uninterrupted Growth Story?” here on Monday. Mr. Chidambaram pointed out that the BJP had not fielded a single Muslim candidate in the recent Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, despite the community constituting 19.3 % of the population in the State. “Is it possible to ensure long term economic growth by excluding from the political process the largest community or women or the Scheduled Castes or the Scheduled Tribes,” he asked. Multiplication of social fault lines According to him, under the BJP government, throughout last year, the social fault lines multiplied and conflicts became the order of the day. If the social fault lines multiplied and deepened, the government cannot keep its eyes on the economy, and that is what happened in 2016. Mr. Chidambaram felt the Modi government had failed to seize the opportunity to drive economic growth despite favourable conditions when it came to power in 2014. In March 2014, though there were clear signs of recovery and the growth rate had climbed back to 6.54%, the new [BJP] government didn’t have a coherent plan for the way forward. Citing Swachh Bharat, International Yoga Day, Make in India, Stand Up India and similar programmes, Mr. Chidambaram alleged there was a lot of activity but none of them contributed to the growth of the economy. Religious conversions, ghar wapsi, the ban on cow slaughter, ban on sale and consumption of beef, love jihad, moral policing and other issues were the other distractions, he pointed out. “The obvious measures of reform were not taken up. The recommendations of the Finance Sector Legislative Reforms Commission were neglected. The Direct Taxes Code was put on the backburner. Having opposed the GST when the BJP was in the Opposition, the government seemed reluctant to push the idea. Disinvestment was a crawl,” he alleged. The NPA scare, the stand-off between the government and the RBI during the last year of the term of Raghuram Rajan, and demonetisation, which he described as the ‘most calamitous disruption, had all impacted growth. “None of the stated objectives of demonetisation was achieved or are they likely to be achieved,” Mr. Chidambaram said, pointing to slowing economic growth rate, which slipped further in Q3 of 2016-17. Bold reforms needed Mr. Chidambaram made it clear that uninterrupted economic growth was not a given. The government was required to take bold and structural reforms and these cannot be accomplished by a few legislative or administrative changes. According to him, there have only been 11 true economic reforms since 1991 and after 2014, he considered only the GST a true reform. Moderating an open session, Kasturi & Sons Limited Chairman N. Ram described Mr. Chidambaram’s lecture as thought provoking, nuanced and interesting. In his introductory remarks, Kasturi & Sons Limited Director N. Ravi said The Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy in its four years of existence has supported 24 short term public policy scholars who have focussed their research on varied subjects, including parliamentary democracy, financial inclusion and voting preferences, among others. Source: The Hindu
The first Annual Lecture of the Hindu Centre for Politics and Public Policy will be delivered by P. Chidambaram, former Union Minister, on March 13, at the Music Academy, Chennai. Chidambaram, who has held the Union Finance and Home Affairs ministerial portfolios, will speak on ‘Will India Script an Uninterrupted Growth Story’. The former Union Minister is currently a member of the Rajya Sabha and is the chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs.The inaugural Annual Lecture by Chidambaram, which is open to public, will be followed by an interaction with the audience. N. Ravi, Director, Kasturi & Sons Limited (KSL) will introduce the lecture and N. Ram, Chairman, KSL, will moderate the public interaction. The aim of The Hindu Centre, which is based in Chennai, is to promote research, dialogue and discussion to enable the creation of informed public opinion on key issues facing India to safeguard, strengthen and nourish parliamentary democracy and pluralism, and to contribute to the nation’s economic, social and political betterment. The Hindu Centre has so far supported 24 short term public policy scholars, who have submitted Policy Reports on areas such as parliamentary democracy, freedom of expression, content of school textbooks, financial inclusion and rural broadband connectivity, which are published online. The Hindu Centre also publishes frequent commentaries and analytical articles on current affairs. Its publications and resources can be accessed at www.thehinducentre.com . To register please send your name, email ID, postal address and phone number to [email protected] or call +914428524445 or +914428538153 (10 a.m. to 6 p.m.)